The New Leadership Portrait

Selecting and developing successful leaders has never been easy. But today, the cost of identifying the wrong leader is rapidly increasing, as complex economic, talent, technology, and geopolitical changes seed uncertainty across the global business environment. Research published in Harvard Business Review shows that excessive leadership turnover at the top destroys significant value—close to $1 trillion a year among the S&P 1500 alone. Strong executives can be the difference between becoming a market leader in a fast-changing, dynamic landscape, or falling out of step with the change curve and losing market share.

In this tumultuous, high-stakes environment, how can organizations identify leaders who are both adept at predicting and preparing for change and keeping their organization steady through the day-to-day? By measuring the executive potential of their leaders at the top.

While existing assessment models successfully identify rising talent, they have been less effective at differentiating leaders who are already succeeding at the executive level. To help organizations understand the best predictors of success among leadership teams within our changing business context, Russell Reynolds Associates created Leadership Portrait.

Built upon years of proprietary research, the Leadership Portrait model encompasses an executive’s readiness to meet immediate challenges—their relevant experience and leadership competencies—as well as their future potential—their growth factors and their ability to realize their full potential. While RRA has leveraged relevant experience, competencies, and growth factors in executive assessment and development for years, the addition of potential realization has evolved our understanding of organizations’ seniormost leaders.

Global organizations spend more than $60 billion annually on leadership development programs. But the returns on these investments for leaders and their teams are not always clear. This expansion of our leadership assessment and development approach aims to help organizations identify executives with the agility to stay in front of the change curve, the self-possession to accelerate their own learning in the face of uncertainty, and the vision to lead enterprise-wide transformation.

The RRA Leadership Portrait

^{Source: RRA proprietary research, 2024}

Measuring leaders’ growth potential is nothing new. What’s different now?

Identifying “high potentials” gained significant traction in the 1970s, as industrial psychologists, management consultants, and human resources practitioners developed a host of theories and models to help businesses spot rising talent. Then, in the early 2000s, these models evolved to measure growth potential factors, aiming to identify those most likely to “close the gap” between their current abilities and more senior level demands.

Though business conditions have changed considerably over the past decades, the predictors of high potential have remained remarkably consistent—including learning from experience; navigating novelty, ambiguity, and complexity; demonstrating persistence and resilience in the face of challenges; and building strong, collaborative relationships and teams. These well-researched qualities are typically seen as predictors of someone’s ability to ascend the leadership ladder and step into increasingly demanding roles.

Yet while these models have been helpful in identifying rising talent and developing future leaders, they have been less effective at differentiating leaders who are already succeeding at the executive level.

Moving from classic potential models to an evolved understanding of executive potential

Organizations now face pressure to identify sitting senior executives who can stay in front of their own learning curve and effectively lead through organizational transformation. Yet the qualities that differentiate future-focused, transformational senior executives from their less change-ready peers have not been clearly delineated or systematically measured, and very few organizations know how to define, justify, or support a selection decision to meet these criteria.

Evolving from traditional potential measurements to a more nuanced, fluid understanding of executive potential requires a fundamental paradigm shift that looks beyond past achievements and current competence to gauge a range of progressively less-tangible factors that accelerate or hinder an executive’s ability to flourish in an ever-evolving leadership landscape.

Because the qualities that unlock an executive’s full potential are multi-faceted, layered, and often deeply personal, we no longer view potential as static or innate. Rather, a leader’s potential is dynamic and evolving, influenced by a variety of factors. Where traditional trait-based potential models deemphasized the role of development, our model identifies clear developmental pathways for unlocking a leader’s capacity to thrive through change, and creates dialogue around purpose, meaning, and self-alignment to drive sustainable career choices.

The key paradigm shift: Making it to the top job is not the realization of potential. As the world grows more complicated, roles will continually change, and the bar will continually reset. As such, potential realization is an ongoing journey that even the most senior executives must contend with as the context and challenges around them change.

The new focus on Potential Realization creates a paradigm shift

Evolving our view of success at the top of the house

Understanding executives’ readiness: Relevant experience & Leadership Span Model™

^{Source: RRA proprietary research, 2024}

Two factors inform an executive’s current readiness for a top job: relevant experience and leadership competencies. As the leading leadership advisory firm, RRA assesses these factors every day. A leader’s relevant experience is self-explanatory—our leadership experts evaluate a candidate’s career history, notable achievements, and leadership experience to intuit whether they can fulfill the job specification.

Since 2017, we have relied on our proprietary Leadership Span Model™ to bring a science-backed framework to assessing a leader’s competencies. Leadership Span evaluates an individual’s ability to cope with four major dualities that characterize the transition into senior leadership roles:

Leadership Span

The model was created to identify each individual’s leadership range (or span). While each span may seem contradictory – how can someone be both vulnerable and heroic? – the most successful leaders can embody both traits simultaneously.

Predicting executive potential: Growth factors & potential realization

^{Source: RRA proprietary research, 2024}

Through years of collective research (see below for complete methodology), we have uncovered that the most successful senior executives are able to strike a critical balance between two kinds of change-readiness that predict potential—growth factors and potential realization.

Growth factors

Which continue to be established and deeply meaningful measures of leadership potential—include:

• Systems Thinking: These leaders think systemically, operating well with complexity and ambiguity.
• Curiosity and Adaptability: These leaders are highly curious students of the world, constantly learning, adapting, and evolving.
• Drive and Resilience: These leaders are ambitious, tenacious and driven, displaying high levels of resiliency and sustainability in how they operate.
• Social Intelligence: These leaders are interpersonally attuned, insightful and mindful; successful with a range of stakeholders.

Potential realization

The new component of our assessment approach—embodies the following three elements:

1. Self-knowledge: These leaders display insight around both their strengths and limitations. This involves realistic expectations for the role, a high level of awareness about how to manage one’s potential derailers, and where one is on their own development path. This also requires a high degree of attunement to the conditions in which one is likely to thrive and grow.

Knowing oneself is the foundation on which leaders should build everything else. Having a strong self-conception helps leaders keep focused on what matters to them and their organization, even through extreme change.” - CEO in conversation with RRA

90% of C-suite leaders globally agreed that taking time to reflect on their personal capabilities was helpful in preparing for their current role Source: Russell Reynolds Associates' H1 2024 Global Leadership Monitor, n=1,506 C-suite leaders

2. Values and aspirations: Leaders who experience long-term success display a high degree of clarity around their personal values, motivations, and ambitions. They have a personal set of morals, principles, and non-negotiables that underlie their decisions and actions, effectively balancing principles with pragmatism, setting clear priorities, and making mindful compromises where appropriate.

95% of C-suite leaders globally agreed that having a clear sense of their personal values and aspirations was important in preparing for their current role Source: Russell Reynolds Associates' H1 2024 Global Leadership Monitor, n=1,506 C-suite leaders

Leadership agility is important, but if it's not balanced with a steady and continuing ability to maintain a vision through uncertainty, the organization can end up in stasis. Leaders need a clear sense of direction and drive. I know plenty of agile CEOs—I spend most of our time together telling them to stop changing their minds all the time.” - Current Board Chair in conversation with RRA

3. Wider impact and legacy: These leaders can look beyond themselves, offering a well-articulated view of their professional purpose and desired impact on the wider ecosystem (including their teams, organization, industry, society, and the world). They are cognizant of the long-term impact of their leadership and can clearly articulate the steps they are taking now to shape their legacy.

The CEO needs to bring a level of “constructive agitation” to their leadership team that probes into the organization’s gaps. This is increasingly important in today's environment, with the velocity and magnitude of change. Future-focused CEOs need to help teams shift their focus from day-to-day operations to more elevated, future risk-oriented ways of thinking.” - Former CFO & Current Board Director in conversation with RRA

84% of C-suite leaders globally agreed that having a clear sense of the impact and legacy they want to leave as a leader was important for preparing them for their current role Source: Russell Reynolds Associates' H1 2024 Global Leadership Monitor, n=1,506 C-suite leaders

While leaders may index more on growth factors or potential realization, the two are intrinsically intertwined. If growth factors indicate the height of an individual’s “ceiling,” potential realization is the sturdiness of the supporting walls.

Growth Factors x Potential Realization: A spectrum of change-readiness

^{RRA proprietary research, 2024}

^{RRA proprietary research, 2024}

To be sure, executives should not be expected to display all these markers simultaneously. Rather, a mark of sound judgment is a leader’s ability to leverage the right approach at the right time. For example, early in an organization’s transformational journey, executives may demonstrate agility, place big bets, and push their team towards innovation. As the journey continues, leaders may be more effective when demonstrating patience and aligning their team around core values and long-term purpose to sustain them through stress, turmoil, and setbacks.

The unexpected successor: Leadership Portrait in action

Our client, a publicly traded industrials company, needed a new CEO after the long-serving incumbent announced plans to vacate the seat sooner than expected.

Two potential internal successors emerged. The first: the firm’s established COO, who was a well-known and respected entity within the industry. They had highly relevant experience and demonstrated applicable growth factors, including cross-functional collaboration, a commitment to clear communication, and demonstrated resiliency during challenging times.

The other was the firm’s CFO, who brought deep strategic experience across a range of functions including business development, finance, and growth transformation, but had less operational exposure. His former employers described him as courageous, authentic, and not afraid to take risks.

The organization had a conservative culture and had typically chosen “low risk” leaders with deep industry expertise. Because of this, the COO appeared as the initially obvious choice to step into the top job.

However, when assessed via our Leadership Portrait Model, we uncovered that the CFO possessed multi-faceted leadership qualities that made them the more compelling choice. When looking towards the future, the organization needed a risk-oriented leader who could continue to adapt in the face of continued business complexity. We identified that the CFO’s good judgment, deep self-knowledge, learning orientation, strategic thinking abilities, and authentic people skills set them apart on a variety of crucial factors. First, the industry’s increasingly volatile commodity prices required an agile leader who could take risks while remaining thoughtful and committed to the organization’s strategy and culture. Second, the CFO’s focus on values and pragmatism made them well-matched to navigate a complex stakeholder environment that included a large leadership team, a diverse local community, and a fraught political landscape. Additionally, the client needed a leader who could engage with influential board members without an ego—our testing showed that the CFO lacked arrogance, instead focusing on their broader impact and the organization’s collective legacy.

Despite the CFO’s lack of traditional experience, our Leadership Portrait showed that they had the right combination of skills to fully realize their potential to learn, manage change, and effectively navigate risk. The organization promoted them to the CEO role. Over the past two years, their performance as CEO contributed to the company's stock price, rising by nearly 60% over the last two years, instilling confidence in their abilities.

 

I hadn’t yet been a CEO, but I’d led people, solved problems and created process at scale, was trained as an executive, and knew how to manage complex stakeholder groups. RRA saw how my prior experiences and drive could translate successfully into the CEO role, even though I hadn’t yet held that title. They helped me break an incredible barrier by giving me that chance to be a first time CEO.”

- Katie Koch, TCW President & CEO, RRA Redefiners Podcast, August 2024.

 

What’s next for senior leaders in an uncertain world?

Decisions around executive leadership placements and transitions rely on a close evaluation of an executive’s readiness and fit for a specific role. However, as the speed of change accelerates and leadership context becomes more complex, it is no longer sufficient to look at a leader’s readiness for a role in the short-term. Instead, organizations need to understand a leader’s ability to adapt, flex and grow along with their role, to hold on to a sense of direction amidst setbacks, and to operate effectively in first-time conditions.

Thus, our Leadership Portrait addresses both short-term and future-readiness. We examine both a leader’s ability to succeed in the role as it is today, as well as their ability to lead the organization through the inevitable change and transformation that sits on the horizon.

Thriving in that unknown future will require a strong learning orientation, resilience, and emotional intelligence. It will also require leaders who are deeply connected to the “why” behind their actions and decisions; leaders who take an honest, insightful approach to their own growth path; and leaders who understand the legacy and impact their leadership will leave behind.

Authors

Dana Landis is a member of Russell Reynolds Associates’ Leadership Advisory practice. She is based in San Francisco.

David Lange leads Russell Reynolds Associates’ Global Development capability. He is based in Chicago.

Dean Stamoulis is a senior member of Russell Reynolds Associates’ Leadership Advisory practice. He is based in Atlanta.

Aimee Williamson is a senior member of Russell Reynolds Associates’ Leadership Advisory practice. She is based in Sydney.

Erin Zolna leads Russell Reynolds Associates’ Global Assessment capability. She is based in New York.

Contributors

Avani Arora is a senior member of Russell Reynolds Associates’ Strategy & Excellence team. She is based in Chicago.

Justin Cerilli leads Russell Reynolds Associates’ Global Capabilities. He is based in Stamford.

Leah Christianson is a member of Russell Reynolds Associates’ Center for Leadership Insight. She is based in San Francisco.

Jerry Doaty is a member of Russell Reynolds Associates’ Leadership Advisory practice. He is based in New York.

Gabrielle Lieberman is a senior member of Russell Reynolds Associates’ Center for Leadership Insight. She is based in Chicago.

Randy Octuck is a member of Russell Reynolds Associates’ Leadership Advisory Knowledge team. He is based in Portland.

Todd Safferstone leads Russell Reynolds Associates’ Strategy & Excellence team. He is based in New York.

Alix Stuart is a member of Russell Reynolds Associates’ Leadership Advisory practice. She is based in Boston.

Select Reference Articles

Growth factors research:

• Dragoni, L., Oh, I. S., Vankatwyk, P., & Tesluk, P. E. (2011). Developing executive leaders: The relative contribution of cognitive ability, personality, and the accumulation of work experience in predicting strategic thinking competency. Personnel psychology, 64(4), 829-864.
• Dries, N., & Pepermans, R. (2012). How to identify leadership potential: Development and testing of a consensus model. Human Resource Management, 51(3), 361-385.
• Silzer, R., & Church, A. H. (2009). The pearls and perils of identifying potential. Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 2(4), 377-412.
• Silzer, R., Church, A. H., Rotolo, C. T., & Scott, J. C. (2016). IO practice in action: Solving the leadership potential identification challenge in organizations. Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 9(4), 814-830.

Potential realization research: 

• By, R. T. (2021). Leadership: In pursuit of purpose. Journal of Change Management, 21(1), 30-44.
• Copeland, M. K. (2014). The emerging significance of values based leadership: A literature review. International Journal of Leadership Studies, 8(2), 105.
• Eigel, K. M., & Kuhnert, K. W. (2005). Authentic development: Leadership development level and executive effectiveness. Authentic leadership theory and practice: Origins, effects and development, 3, 357-385.
• Hartung, 2020. The impact of self-awareness on leadership behavior, Journal of Applied Leadership and Management, Vol. 8, pp. 1-21.
• Kempster, S., Jackson, B., & Conroy, M. (2011). Leadership as purpose: Exploring the role of purpose in leadership practice. Leadership, 7(3), 317- 334.